Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Japan nuclear problem spinning out of control, U.S. Markets down 1-2%

After an opening gap down, U.S. markets recovered to near unchanged in the opening 80 minutes, but when five minutes later, a quick thrust down put us below the morning lows, it was all over. All sectors closed in the red.

DIA down 2.04%, SPY down 1.95%, QQQQ down 1.89%, IWM down 1%.

NYSE Breadth was 22 to 7 negative. 138 issues (mostly short ETFs or bond ETFs) reached new 50-day highs.

Apple dropped 15.42 to 330.01. The Japanese will need money to rebuild their nation and they'll sell everything to acquire Yen. You can bet they'll need at least $500 billion USD given all the infrastructure damage.

Best performing ETF was the DPK (Triple Short Developed Markets), up 5.34 to 47.41. The Ultrashort Japan ETF via the EWV was up 3.09 to 42.36. The Triple Short QQQQ via Proshares (SQQQ) up 2.04 to 30.57.

Couldn't hide in precious metals. SLV down .37 to 33. GLD down .84 to 135.40.

Currency markets, FXY made a new high up 1.46 to 123.71. The USD broke below its 52-week low against all major currencies today.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

U.S. Markets gap down 2.5% at open but steadily ramps up to limit losses

With the world literally watching minute by minute on the potential nuclear meltdown story in Japan, U.S. markets recovered their opening gap losses to finish down 1.2%.


All the major U.S. averages closed below their 50-day moving averages and I sold almost every long position (97%) in friends' retirement accounts and converted into cash (U.S. Dollars). The aggressive accounts have a starter 20% net short position.

NYSE Breadth was 23 to 7 negative. Only 78 issues closed at 50-day highs.


Ironically, the worst sector was precious metals. SLV down 4% to 33.61, GLD down 1.8% to 136.27. In a market with no buyers, there is no safe place to hide except cash.


The best triple short ETF was the Direxion Developing Markets (DPK) up 2.44 to 42.07. Yesterday's EMV initially had a 15% gain at the open but closed only with a 12 cent gain to 39.27. How's that for volatility.


Railroads was the second best sector via RA up .64 to 17.05.

Japan drops 7.5% on Mon, U.S. markets holding their breadth

With the world hoping there's no nuclear meltdown of the power plants in Japan, everyone is essentially watching.

While the U.S. markets steadily dropped for the first 2 1/2 hours, the decline was limited to 1.5% before rallying in the final 3 1/2 hours to cut the losses to .5% on the averages.

NYSE Breadth was 19 down for every 11 up. Only 99 issues closed at 50-day highs.

Obviously the Ultrashort Japan ETF (EWV) was the top performer up 5.11 to 39.15.

Agriculture led by SMG up 1.25 to 57.16.

Warren Buffett reared his ugly head buying out LZ as it moved up 29 pts to 134.68. The move drove the rest of the chemical sector higher as NEU rose 15.39 to 146.

The U.S. averages are holding above the 50-day moving average. Although at this hour, the futures are showing 2% declines for the U.S. markets. Japan is expected to drop more at the open but until we see a close below the 50-day, we've either wisely or stupidly held our longs. I'm worried about prematurely getting shaken out and have the market rocket higher. We can only take it day by day and see what the closing price says.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Partial snapback bounce, but an 8.9 earthquake in Japan

SPY up .71%, QQQQ up .54%, DIA up .5%, IWM up .41%

Late Thursday night, a magnitude 8.9 earthquake struck Japan as a wave of water literally erased a couple of cities on the northern island. While the U.S. market shrugged off the news then, its now three days later, and we'll have to see if Friday was simply the calm before the storm.

On Fri NYSE Breadth was 18 to 12 in favor of the bulls. Only 77 issues closed at 50-day highs.

Food was led by SJM up 1.18 to 71.40

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Longs eat Crow, U.S. markets drop 1.8%

Feels like a buyers strike and that's not good for long holders. IWM down 2.6%.

NYSE Breadth was 26 to 4 negative. Only 64 issues (mostly bond etf's) made 50-day highs.

GMCR was the big winner up 18 to 61.71 on news it will enter a a joint venture with SBUX to sell its products in stores. SBUX rose 3.43 to 39.97.

If this is the start of a correction, the best performing sector has to roll over and die. Well today's 3.64% drop in the XLE (Energy ETF) wasn't what longs ordered.

There was no safe place for longs as every sector finished in the red.

The E-mini S&P Contract is currently one point above the February lows. For the longs to have any chance, they must defend that line by Fri and Mon's close.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Markets do nothing and holding their breadth

IWM down .4%, QQQQ down .39%, SPY down .14%, DIA up .02%.

NYSE Breadth was 16 down for every 14 up. 228 issues made 50-day highs.

Coffee (JO) up 1.61 to 78.21.

Utilities was the top performing sector via the XLU up .33 to 32.82.

HMOs led by AGP up 1.33 to 59.90.

Railroads led by RA up .82 to 16.33.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Churning back higher for an inside day

No specific news. Almost as if the last two days didn't mean anything.

IWM up 1.63%, DIA up 1.06%, SPY up .87%, QQQQ up .4%.

NYSE Breadth was 22 up for every 8 down. 238 issues closed at 50-day highs.

Commodities led by Coffee (JO) up 1.58 to 76.60.

Cigarettes led by PM up .61 to 64.25.

Cleaning Products led by CHD up 1.26 to 77.94.

Medical Instruments led by SYK up 1.76 to 65.07, STJ up .94 to 50.25.

Oil led by GLF up .50 to 47. But most Oils and Metals sold off for a second straight day.

Utilities have started to catch a bid, D up .72 to 46.14.

Opening 30 min bounce evaporates, U.S. markets down

Only a buy program in the final 45 minutes lifted the averages off their lows. Silver reached new 31-year highs but closed well off session highs. Gold and Oil were up but their corresponding stocks were not as most people are sitting in cash awaiting a definitive direction from the market.

IWM down 1.54%, QQQQ down 1.4%, SPY down .83%, DIA down .66%.

NYSE Breadth was 23 down for every 7 up. Only 154 issues made new 50-day highs.

Silver led all sectors via the SLV up .54 to 35.23. Gold was up .39 via the GLD to 139.72.

Coffee via the JO was up 2 to 75.02.

Cocoa via the NIB up .09 to 52.24.

Cigarettes led by PM up .14 to 63.64.

Cleaning Products led by CHD up .30 to 76.68.

Nasdaq Big Cappers taken to the woodshed today: GOOG down 8.96 to 591.66, NFLX down 3.32 to 207.40, AMZN down 2.59 to 169.08, ISRG down 2.45, to 329.59, PCLN down 2.44 to 466.69.

Light Sweet Crude Oil for April delivery was up closing .36 to 104.92 although it was over 106.90 intraday. Most Oil stocks were down, but LUFK up 1.81 to 86.69.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Volatility returns, silver is up, oil is up, markets are down

Only place safe is silver, gold, and oil futures at least for one day. Except for a final half-hour buy program, markets should have been worse off. Bernanke is lucky he has an unlimited printing press, at least until the Chinese decide to call his bluff one day and say "no mas" to U.S. Treasuries.

SPY down .74%, DIA down .72%, QQQQ down .5%, IWM down .47%.

NYSE Breadth was 2 to 1 lower. 202 issues closed at 50-day highs.

All about Jim Roger's Commodities:

Silver via the SLV up 1.28 to 34.69 (a new 31-year high).

Gold via the GLD up 1.26 to 139.35.

Oil was led by IMO up 1.15 to 54, DBE up .26 to 30.99, COP up .43 to 79.98.

Gasoline via the UGA up .48 to 49.66.

Nasdaq Big-Cappers led by PCLN up 4.34 to 469.13.

Railroads led by RA up .07 to 15.77.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Markets have a way of fooling the weak holders, 1.5% gains on the U.S. avgs

IWM up 2.22%, QQQQ up 1.93%, SPX up 1.72%, DIA up 1.59%

NYSE Breadth was 24 issues up for every 6 down. 450 issues reached new 50-day highs.

Brokerages led by OPY up .74 to 32.84.

Cigarettes led by PM up .75 to 63.67.

Commodities led by Coffee up 2.14 to 73.54, Cocoa up 1.12 to 53.53.

Consumer Products led by CHD up 1.66 to 76.17.

Drugs led by NVO up 3.32 to 127.89.

Industrial Goods led by BWC up .25 to 34.68.

Medical Appliances led by MTD up 4.98 to 175.54, COV up 1.58 to 53.01, STJ up 1 to 49.37, SYK up 1.50 to 64.56.

Nasdaq Big-Cappers led by PCLN up 15.61 to 464.79, AAPL up 7.44 to 359.56.

Oil led by MRO up 1.73 to 52.66, COP up 1.30 to 79.55.

Railroads led by RA up .36 to 15.70.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Not much of a turnaround

U.S. Markets had a good forty minutes before selling off throughout the day. If not for a final half-hour run-up, they wouldn't have finished in the black.

IWM up .47%, QQQQ up .39%, SPY up .16%, DIA up .07%

NYSE Breadth was 19 up for every 11 down. 162 issues made new 50-day highs.

Commodities led by Cocoa (NIB) up .68 to 52.41, GSG up .33 to 37.30.

Gold was led by individual components such as ABX up .11 to 53.88.

Energy in the spotlight as IMO up 1.39 to 53.17, UGA up .50 to 49.32, DBE up .46 to 30.83.

Nasdaq Big Cap led by AAPL up 2.81 to 352.12 as iPad 2 looks like a winner. PCLN up 3.95 to 449.18, AMZN up 2.58 to 172.02.

In pre-market, JOYG missed earnings estimates by 6%, stock dropped almost 3.27. Since earnings plays aren't working now, it means the tone for the short term has changed to avoid until we find some support level for the U.S. averages.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Markets flip us the bird, down over 1 1/2% on the avgs

When too many people especially CNBC talk about the first of the month jumper, often times it means the market will do the opposite. The previous six months, the first day of the month saw a positive gain. On the seventh month, they gapped down and closed at the lows.

IWM down 1.99%, QQQQ down 1.61%, SPY down 1.57%, DIA down 1.38%.

NYSE Breadth was 22 down for every 8 up. Only 115 issues closed at 50-day new highs.

Silver via the SLV was the top performing sector up .76 to 33.87. Gold via the GLD was up 2.37 to 140.03.

ETFs related to precious metals AGQ up 8.54 to 194.80, DBS up 1.39 to 60.75, SIVR up .78 to 34.54, GG up 1.54 to 49.35, DBP up 1.81 to 53.34.

& select energy BNO up 2.92 to 77.24, UGA up 1.70 to 48.82, DBE up .73 to 30.69.

Energy was led by MRO up 1.15 to 50.75 but most companies were sold off in the final three hours to match the U.S. averages.

Early in pre-market, AZO reported positive earnings and one of the few stocks up today, up 5.57 to 263.52.