Since I cannot win or lose money with no positions. I'm thinking we're about to see another of those mystery 90 point rises in the Dow whether from the PPT or a CNBC pundit blaring a fake positive news item. Watch the Dow finish the day only with a single digit loss versus triple digit.
That's what I think the tape is telling. Let's see how it turns out.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
While you were asleep, JOYG back above 70
They reported earnings. Stock up 6% today.
Just live and learn. We've left some money on the table with TWM up almost 3 points today. But have to stick with your plan. Think about legging into to whatever trade you see in about two weeks.
We can only guess at what the market reaction for tomorrow's jobs reports. I'm guessing we closed because we were afraid of a "bogus" positive spin on the report could wipeout the TWM move. You won't go broke taking 4 point profits, but you also won't get rich leaving another 3 points on the table.
Market averages down 1% across the board at moment.
Just live and learn. We've left some money on the table with TWM up almost 3 points today. But have to stick with your plan. Think about legging into to whatever trade you see in about two weeks.
We can only guess at what the market reaction for tomorrow's jobs reports. I'm guessing we closed because we were afraid of a "bogus" positive spin on the report could wipeout the TWM move. You won't go broke taking 4 point profits, but you also won't get rich leaving another 3 points on the table.
Market averages down 1% across the board at moment.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Annoyed at yesterday's final hour recovery
As the Dow was sitting around 12100; around 2:55pm, one of the CNBC pundits came on the air and made some comments about a plan to assist mortgage insurer Ambac and turning a 180 point loss in the Dow to a 45 point loss by the close.
The sickening thing was the move stopped out our entire TWM position at 86.09 yesterday. So now we're 100% cash. Sad thing about all that was because of the number of bad hedge trades using long oil companies ate most of the profits on the TWM trade. The end result of was a measely .33% gain or just under $700.
It would figure the markets after initially rallying over 120 points on the fake ISM numbers are now down 40 points with 2 hours left in the trading day. The TWM is back to 87 so we're on the outside looking in until we find another setup.
YTD -4.73%
The sickening thing was the move stopped out our entire TWM position at 86.09 yesterday. So now we're 100% cash. Sad thing about all that was because of the number of bad hedge trades using long oil companies ate most of the profits on the TWM trade. The end result of was a measely .33% gain or just under $700.
It would figure the markets after initially rallying over 120 points on the fake ISM numbers are now down 40 points with 2 hours left in the trading day. The TWM is back to 87 so we're on the outside looking in until we find another setup.
YTD -4.73%
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Watchlist: Imperial Sugar, IPSU & IPSUW
One of the traders who rode this from 23 to 50 mentioned this other day as its made a roundtrip back to its lows. The common trades around 19.80 and the warrants expiring in Aug of 2008 trade around 2.85.
Jim Rogers likes to mention that sugar is one of the few commodities trading 60% below its all time high so here's one to keep an eye on if it gets a move on.
Jim Rogers likes to mention that sugar is one of the few commodities trading 60% below its all time high so here's one to keep an eye on if it gets a move on.
Raise your stop on TWM to 86.09
In downtrending markets, any potential reversal moves whether its the PPT or Bernanke related will come without warning, and you do not want to lose all those profits.
At worst, you'll be stopped out but you can always reenter the winning trade at a higher price point.
In uptrending markets, you can afford to be loose with your stop because the pullbacks to the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 50-day moving average are designed to shake out the weak long. But in downtrending markets, there is no guarantee of a reversal move to recover either a breakeven position or some of your profits.
At worst, you'll be stopped out but you can always reenter the winning trade at a higher price point.
In uptrending markets, you can afford to be loose with your stop because the pullbacks to the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 50-day moving average are designed to shake out the weak long. But in downtrending markets, there is no guarantee of a reversal move to recover either a breakeven position or some of your profits.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Lucky the market tanked on Leap Day, personally in the black for Feb
Fortunately, historical precedent held as Feb 29 is a down day. What we didn't expect was the 3% down day turning our big TWM position to green and finishing the month up $330 or .16%.
Now that the position has turned green, put an auto stop around 82.90 so that we don't look completely deerish.
The real movers in the prior week were a casy play and the metals:
casy play EOG finally got a move on, up 21 points last week and up another 3 today, (just like Livermore said, the $100 price point, key psychological point)
ATLS up 10 points over two weeks, and where was I, yes early on index shorts before getting lucky.
SLV up to 196. It's up another 4 today, so my timely coworker cost me 30+ points.
KGC up to 25. Wouldn't have caught it but a heck of a move.
MTL to 137. Your bread and butter cup and handle. It's a missed trade.
Now on the downside, FWLT, they reported earnings last week and got crushed 10 points. When a former high flier has that type of reaction, either new leaders emerge or the market is in trouble. So far its looking the latter, which ironically, is good for me.
Now that the position has turned green, put an auto stop around 82.90 so that we don't look completely deerish.
The real movers in the prior week were a casy play and the metals:
casy play EOG finally got a move on, up 21 points last week and up another 3 today, (just like Livermore said, the $100 price point, key psychological point)
ATLS up 10 points over two weeks, and where was I, yes early on index shorts before getting lucky.
SLV up to 196. It's up another 4 today, so my timely coworker cost me 30+ points.
KGC up to 25. Wouldn't have caught it but a heck of a move.
MTL to 137. Your bread and butter cup and handle. It's a missed trade.
Now on the downside, FWLT, they reported earnings last week and got crushed 10 points. When a former high flier has that type of reaction, either new leaders emerge or the market is in trouble. So far its looking the latter, which ironically, is good for me.
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