Haven't been blogging for several months to get my head straight. Uncle was going through some health issues, passing away in May. The memorial service was something to behold as 140 of his friends came from as far away as the home country to share their stories and how he made a difference among the thousands of people he influenced.
Having had a chance to see through, its obvious now that attempting to trade during that time could only result in disaster since I couldn't devote 100% of my time to watching the markets. At the lowest point, we were down 11% ytd before getting a grip on things, and recovering all the losses from those three months in 20 days. We're still down ytd but now we have a realistic chance of turning positive with six months to go.
Tomorrow at 2:15p is the rate announcement for another FOMC meeting. Regardless of what Bernanke does on interest rates, we want to stick with the way we are managing positions and honor both those profit stops and stop losses.
It's obvious now that Livermore was right that posting one's trades is more of a detriment and one should trade with a lone hand. If we were retired and had $1 billion, it would be different because of the credibility factor.
YTD -4.71%
Monday, June 23, 2008
Monday, April 7, 2008
Sold all shares TWM at 75.09
Gave up. Now it would be more sick if the Dow decided to drop 300 points from here.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
While you were asleep, RIMM and others were up in past 10 days
RIMM reported its 4th qtr earnings and the after hours action is positive, up 3.75. The stock has move from around 104 ten days ago to its 121 quote just before 5pm EST.
Pretty sad, when you're missing these types of moves.
The S&P tested the 1360 support level and held as its the most recent high on a ten day chart. If the buyers have the firepower, it looks like they want to take out that 1400 level depending on the Jobs report on Friday. What I'm hoping for is a sick job report that crushes these up moves; otherwise, 1400 is a foregone conclusion and I'll look at massive losses.
I don't expect much action Thursday even with the RIMM move. I'm thinking the S&P stalls around 1380 for tomorrow. But then again, its been a bad two days for you, so until you are right, you are dead wrong and paying for it.
Pretty sad, when you're missing these types of moves.
The S&P tested the 1360 support level and held as its the most recent high on a ten day chart. If the buyers have the firepower, it looks like they want to take out that 1400 level depending on the Jobs report on Friday. What I'm hoping for is a sick job report that crushes these up moves; otherwise, 1400 is a foregone conclusion and I'll look at massive losses.
I don't expect much action Thursday even with the RIMM move. I'm thinking the S&P stalls around 1380 for tomorrow. But then again, its been a bad two days for you, so until you are right, you are dead wrong and paying for it.
Douche trade of the quarter after yesterday
With the markets up 3% on April 1 of all days. That 200 share probe has turned into a $1300 tuition lesson. It shows you how a small probe position can eat up almost .8% of your net worth if you bet in the wrong direction.
This is the negative thing of letting the ego get in the way, as wanting to be right wasn't the best play.
Since this is the second straight quarter I've had a bad trade on the final day of an ending quarter, I should avoid making new trades on 12/31, 3/31, 6/30, and 9/30, until I get my head straight.
Now we're in the position of managing this bad trade, whereas simply holding earlier trades such as AAPL, and X , or even SID would have yielded decent gains.
First off, ignore all the news and Bernanke. Even though you are irritated at that douche and the market reaction, all that matters is what's happening right now.
I'm pretty sure you're looking at taking a chance at doubling down on that TWM position because you don't believe yesterday's 3% up move. 99% of the time, I would NEVER do this after watching a position plunge 8% in 1 1/2 days. Anyway since I'm on semi-tilt, don't be surprised if my next post is buy 300 shares of TWM.
YTD -5.40%
This is the negative thing of letting the ego get in the way, as wanting to be right wasn't the best play.
Since this is the second straight quarter I've had a bad trade on the final day of an ending quarter, I should avoid making new trades on 12/31, 3/31, 6/30, and 9/30, until I get my head straight.
Now we're in the position of managing this bad trade, whereas simply holding earlier trades such as AAPL, and X , or even SID would have yielded decent gains.
First off, ignore all the news and Bernanke. Even though you are irritated at that douche and the market reaction, all that matters is what's happening right now.
I'm pretty sure you're looking at taking a chance at doubling down on that TWM position because you don't believe yesterday's 3% up move. 99% of the time, I would NEVER do this after watching a position plunge 8% in 1 1/2 days. Anyway since I'm on semi-tilt, don't be surprised if my next post is buy 300 shares of TWM.
YTD -5.40%
Monday, March 31, 2008
End of the quarter, -4.74% for three months
We haven't done much. All that trading in the final two weeks of the quarter was essentially negligible. Although we were up slightly for the month, I think we were better because we went with small share sizes to avoid any possible moves in either direction.
With the new quarter coming up, I think with today's trade we're starting to get a little bias on what we want to see. But it will depend on how the tape reacts in the next few days to determine if we start off on the right foot, or whether April Fools turns out to be a joke on me.
If you look at the last three months on the Russell 2000 and throw some Fibonacci charts on it, we could go either way. You have that big resistance line around 72 and then you have that support around 64. Everything in between is your retracement numbers. Now if speculating were that easy, we'd all by wealthy and retired. During these periods before the real move, you have two choices: a) sit back and wait for the confirmation (which can prevent losses, but also prevent profits) or b) stick a probe position and play the ranges.
At this time, I'm choosing b, since earnings season nearly guarantees movement.
With the new quarter coming up, I think with today's trade we're starting to get a little bias on what we want to see. But it will depend on how the tape reacts in the next few days to determine if we start off on the right foot, or whether April Fools turns out to be a joke on me.
If you look at the last three months on the Russell 2000 and throw some Fibonacci charts on it, we could go either way. You have that big resistance line around 72 and then you have that support around 64. Everything in between is your retracement numbers. Now if speculating were that easy, we'd all by wealthy and retired. During these periods before the real move, you have two choices: a) sit back and wait for the confirmation (which can prevent losses, but also prevent profits) or b) stick a probe position and play the ranges.
At this time, I'm choosing b, since earnings season nearly guarantees movement.
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