Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Trading with a Plan and Luck

Today's 286 point rebound in the Dow recovered three days of declines in the markets. Through sheer luck, we covered all the ultrashorts on the day before. Even sent an email to one of the traders as proof of when I covered. The only tangible explanation I can think of is I treated the ultrashort trades as timed exits. In other words, I treated them like as if I were trading options.

Before I inititated the position, I had already outlined within a few days, the earliest and the latest date I would close the position. See the post from July 27.

The market always prices future events today. The market is always giving signals of when there is a chance for a trend reversal. When you have a profit on a timed position, it is better to be early and close with a profit than to try and extract one extra day when the risk outweighs the reward.

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