Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Late night review, will we bail before the timed event

We got lucky and held everything from yesterday, gaining back just under 60% of yesterday's 9k hit. Unfortunately, the S&P 500 closed 14 points below the 50 day moving average and barely above the 200 day. The SPX can still drop another 27 points and not make a lower low from the pivot point on Nov 26 at 1406.

Originally, we were going to hold BUCY and ESRX until their prospective news event later this month, but the volatility of the markets could shake us out. BUCY actually did an intraday sell stop at work but since I was busy, I was unable to place the trade which ended up being a blessing for the moment.

Ironically, out of all the positions ATW is higher after the fed decision and is the best performer in our current portfolio. The worst performer is our latest two position buy in POT and its likely to be the first candidate that gets jettisoned.

Somehow, I quickly went from 45% long to 93% long and now I'm regretting some of what are now careless trades. We're in a bad position of what's known as STUCK. Although historically we're in a seasonal advantage for long positions, it will take a decent move higher in individual positions just to breakeven on the most recent buys.

There's a good chance that if I come out of this in one piece that for 2008 I will avoid trading most of December as this is the second consecutive year, where I went from green to red in the second week of the month.

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