Tuesday, January 15, 2008

One week later, right prediction, markets still suck

My prediction from last week understated the one day pop, as the averages were up almost 1.5%. But the subsequent days afterward erased the entire move and much more even with Mon's up day due to 10% moves in agricultural plays such as MOS and MON.

While the averages were down 2%, the real moves were in the emerging markets as FXP rose 15% as it moves double inverse to the actual index. Even EEV managed an 8% gain.

Earlier today, C finally cut its dividend as I had been stating for several months and INTC getting clobbered 13% afterhours.

So if I think the market continues to decline, I would go long the FXP, EEV, and SRS. If I believe the markets turnaround, I would go long, MOS, MON, KWK, and FXF.

Overseas markets are down as I type, so expect a 1.5% drop at the open. Ironically, I think its an opportunity to fade the gap and buy the gap down and then sell near the close for a one day long. Near the end of the day, I probably would go long the FXP and EEV if they are red for the day.

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