Monday, January 7, 2008

Seven consecutive down days on QQQQ

Stubbornness is a bad trait for swingtraders. We turned red for the year today because we didn't sell our positions last Friday. So now we're stuck. Even if I think the energy positions can turn around at some point, how much pain will you be able to take in order to see it turnaround.

The worst thing is none of the positions have hit a 10% stop, but having one position go from a 4k gain to negative is inexcusable.

Ironically, of the few stocks that are up, one we sold a few days ago.

Healthcare - ESRX, CVD
Utilities - FE
Energy - BPT, PZE
Agriculture - MON

Probe trades are good and bad in that when you are wrong, it reduces your cash position. While most trades have been profitable, they haven't offset the losses on the now 47% long position.

We have this mindset that regardless of what happens, we want to lean on energy. However, this downtrend for the past seven days is costing dollars.

Casy was known to endure some drawdowns but I don't believe he let more than 10% go at any one point. We are nowhere near that point, but what concerns me is that I'll get down 10.1%, sell, and then watch in horror as the stocks I sell recover.

I think its going to be a tough nine more days and I feel I'll be in the position where I might do something crazy such as double down on both my energy longs. I won't go into margin but here's where emotions could be starting to interfere with judgment.

YTD -4.9% (and it only took four trading days, how pathetic).

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