Monday, February 25, 2008

Last Fri, what the hell? and bot 150 HES at close

Last Friday, the markets were down about 1% with the gap higher sold off and for most of the day, we were looking at a 3k profit. Unfortunately, the "black swan" moment happened at 3:30p. For some reason, the markets wiped out all of its losses to finish with a .6% gain in the final 30 minutes of trading.

The difficulty of these markets is that perception can turn without warning. While it is a rumor of a potential $3 billion infusion into one of the mortgage insurers such as Ambac that is potentially the cause for a turnaround, as a trader it is not for you to have that "deer in the headlights look" when a big gain begins to unravel. Even an $84 stop after the TWM rose to 86.50 would have been good and would have prevented today's debacle. With the up one day, down the next, movement of the prior ten days, today or Monday is the first where two consecutive days have finished in the same direction.

Unfortunately for me, we're still caught holding the proverbial cookie jar which has got to be my worse trade in 2008. Whether I was on tilt or something, I bought 150 HES around 97.50 in the thinking that 100 is inevitable. But it really does suck when one was up for the month only to have one bad trade ruin that. Market up 200 points today on no news. Getting pretty sick of not capturing all of these moves.

YTD -6.56%, Month of Feb -1.34%.

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