Looking like I missed to best exit point by two days. At the close of Monday, the Dow was approaching the lows of the year from January 22. Before today's open, Bernanke announced some $200 billion plan to save the banks. Which is of course stupid, but the Dow opened up 260 points before the first trade. After consolidating to only up 150 around the 1:30p mark, Turnaround Tuesday made its mark, as mystery buy programs and volume showed up all the way to the close.
Unfortunately, we didn't catch any of this. So let's take a guess on where we think the averages may go. I'm looking at a three month chart of the Dow on a 30 minute time frame. Think the safest point to think about shorting is about 12600 or about 450 points above where it closed today, because it might want to go back into the recent two month trading range.
The S&P 500 has a similar chart and I think 1370 is the likely point to look as the first probe position for a short.
In the meantime, I had a few momentum long ideas, and if I feel completely wacky, maybe I'll play one while the trend temporarily has shifted higher.
It's probably best to stay away from the ultrashort ETF's for at least another week and a half.
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