Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Note on trading FOMC meetings, take your profits faster

Because I look at things technically, successful day or swingtrades require two components. It is not enough to have the perfect entry for a trade such as today by capturing the entry point for TWM about 70 seconds before the FOMC announcement. You should not be counting the $2.5k you almost had during the fifteen minutes after the announcement because YOU HAVEN'T CLOSED THE TRADE.

While mentors emphasize a lot on entry, I think that having an exit strategy is just as important because that determines how much profit or how little loss your trade will become.

In hindsight, on FOMC meetings, once your position is up 2 points on an ultraindex etf, you probably should move the stop to about ninety cents above your buy or short point so that you'll have enough time to close the trade in case of a reversal move, which happened within five minutes. The moves are much faster on an FOMC meeting and if you want, setting a stop about fifty cents below the 10 min EMA as a stop, will prevent you from having the deer in the headlights look. Also notice that if the 5 min EMA rolls over the 10 min EMA, and the RSI has dropped from above 70, it's likely a sign that the move has played itself out. Which is what happened here. Despite the TWM immediately going to 89.50 pulling back to 88.30 then climbing to almost 91, there were several chances to look in that 15 min trade for at worst a $1200 gain.

Unfortunately six days away from the markets because of other nonprofitable sporting activities was a very costly lesson. Now that we're stuck, we have to hope that we can either get out for a small loss or ride out the current move.

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