Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Friday, July 27, 2007

Portfolio notes during the -311 Day for the Dow

As everyone saw, both FLIR and CLB got stopped out. CLB was near breakeven, while we rode FLIR for nearly 10 pts on the final 100 shares. Long time holding JOYG sold on the 25th after earnings dropped the stock into a nosedive from 63 to 52. These were the original casy shares that we got in together in March of 2005. It's the last remaining memory of, in my opinion, the best trader I have ever witnessed in the trading room. He always wanted us to make him proud, so should one day, one of us make the cover of a Dow Jones, Time Warner, or McGraw-Hill publication, I'm sure he'll be smiling at us.

When the market was down 150 on the Dow, I initiated three new shorts using the double-short index ETF's of 200 of TWM, 100 of SRS, and 150 of SKF. This was to somewhat mitigate the remaining 4 longs. Although all 4 longs are sitting very close to their stop points, I'm playing the shorts for a quick 5% move before I flip them out.

Contrary to what the news is saying, I believe the past few days is similar to what occurred in the last trading day of February and the following ten days. So if this move plays out the same, the averages should move down another 5% before finding support twice and then rallying again to another new high.

A catalyst for a move down on Friday is the GDP report and as a short, the best scenario is something below 1% growth. As for the likely cover date for the shorts, I'm guessing Fri, Aug 3rd since my best guess on the monthly 401k money being invested is Mon, Aug 6. One of the traders suggested the Wed AM release of CSCO on the 8th could be the catalyst to stop the current downtrend. Her technology calls are spot on, so if anything I might play it indirectly by adding to my AAPL shares or purchasing RIMM.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Raise your stops on FLIR & CLB

Mental notes. Raise your stop on FLIR to 45.30. Raise your stop on CLB to 100.30.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Sales Tax Holidays on select August days in 14 States

Raising4boys.com had a list of the 14 states scheduled to host sales tax holidays in August. Unofficially, it's the state government's way of giving a tax cut by encouraging spending as students are returning back to school. If your state is on the list, be sure to check with your state's department of revenue on the internet to confirm they haven't changed their minds, as some cities do NOT honor the holiday. Also the exemption is for state tax only. You are still responsible for paying the County, Local, Municipal, and County taxes on an item. Reminder that each individual item cannot exceed the specified maximum for each category.

Alabama, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
Computers $750
School Supplies $50
Books $30 (Now this is funny, you can possibly get Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows tax free, but not your $100 college textbook)

Connecticut, 8/19-8/25
Clothing $300 (J. Crew must be loving this one)

District of Columbia, 8/4-8/12
Clothing $100
School Supplies $100

Florida, 8/4-8/13
Clothing $50
School Supplies $10

Georgia, 8/2-8/5
Clothing $100
School Supplies $20
Computers $1500 (for individual purchase only, not for businesses)

Iowa, 8/3-8/4
Clothing $100

Louisiana, 8/3
Most items under $2500

Missouri, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
Computers $3500 (Not a misprint, this state is the 2nd best for this category)
School Supplies $50

New Mexico, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
Computers $1000
School Supplies $15

North Carolina, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
School Supplies $100
Computers $3500 (If anyone thinks, I will put this state in a tie for 2nd, think again, not investing in any state that sponsors Bank of America)
Other computer items $250
Sports Equipment $50

Oklahoma, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100

South Carolina, 8/3-8/5 (Best of Nation)
No dollar limits
Clothing
School Supplies
Computers
Linens

Tennessee, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
School Supplies $100
Computers $1500

Texas, 8/17-8/19
Clothing and backpacks $100

Virginia, 8/3-8/5
Clothing $100
School Supplies $20

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Marital Success or Divorce by John Gottman

Although I've never married, on several recent occasions I've been asked, "What do you believe makes a marriage successful today?"

One possible resource is a book written by psychologist John Gottman, "The Seven Principles for Making Marriage Work". Now I don't know whether the information is full of "insert expletive", but two passages that stood out, during a random visit at "insert publicly traded retail store" were:

1) According to Gottman's research, there are four patterns of noncommunication (criticism, defensiveness, contempt, and stonewalling) that predict DIVORCE with 91% accuracy. Unsuccessful marriages generally occur because at some point either spouse looks for and verbally mentions flaws to their spouse's personality or character.

2) Successful marriages are characterized by the ability to create shared meaning. In English, the guy or girl is looking for someone to share their experiences with.

While intimacy is important; in today's world, it's fairly common to see one spouse sharing their field of expertise (sport, occupation, trade) with each other so that the spouse sees him or her at their best, away from the home. Sometimes the nontypical outing, whether neither guy or gal has the perceived advantage, is what usually makes or breaks the early stages of marriages.

For example, the simple gesture of a guy and a girl shopping together at the mall because a:) she asked him to go with her, and b) the man showed enthusiasm to go shopping with her is a big thing for couples today. It's not because they have money to burn. It's about seeing a different side of one another and sometimes discovering another positive attribute of their spouse they didn't notice before.

Now for everyone thinking, whether i'm channeling Oprah on anyone, let me conclude this pre-holiday post paraphrasing from Yoda of all characters. "There are those who DO and there are those who do NOT. " Translation: If marriage is important to you, never EVER think you are settling. Being single has its moments, but sometimes the holidays are a reminder of the consequences of not hearing the words "I Love You" or "Let Me Help" from someone who loves you. And in this decade, where marriage doesn't mean much to half the U.S. population, I would still like to believe that everyone finds their significant other, someplace in this galaxy.