When ignoring the Stock Trader's Almanac works

As mentioned on previous columns, my copy of the 2007 Almanac sits in the fireplace since it has cost versus making additional profits in 2007 with its historical precedents. However, one of the few times it has saved me money was doing the opposite of what it said for today's action.

Historically, the Monday prior to the October quadruple witch Friday, the Dow has been up 22 of the past 26 years, and has been up 6 straight years. The problem with this precedent is no fewer than 5 mainstream sites from marketwatch, smartmoney, barrons, thestreet, and cnbc were mentioning this record last Friday.

As soon as everyone realizes a pattern, institutions will do one of two things: a) front run the perceived advantage or b) do the exact opposite to force out the speculators.

With the markets down about 1% on the averages intraday, my current plan is to see if Tue is a small positive day, then for the averages to finish lower on Wed, but NOT drop below the 30 day simple moving average. The Dow dropped below the 20 day intraday so while most radars are on the 50 day, I'm watching near the 30 day as an entry point for the close on Wed.