Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Late day thoughts from yesterday and today

When casy and I had our weekly chats, he was helping me with getting back to generating consistent month to month returns versus the make everything in five months and underperform the remaining seven months of the year.

I think he had a very good sense to know when I was on tilt or out of sync with the markets because it occurred at least once a year when I would have a 10% drawdown. Since he knew I wouldn't stop watching the markets, he would share a euphemistic means of discouraging me from taking a bad trade, such as "I ain't buying no sissy retail!", or "Java Junkie, why would you want to buy SBUX when you can make some Yuban." Remember this was back before Short ETFs were available to trade. He was right on at least 80% on his market insights, (although he won't admit it now, he knew I was better at trading SBUX).

Since I'm on tilt for probably at least a few more days, it means I have to reduce my share size down to 100 shares or $6-10k blocks for new trades.

Ironic, that yesterday's 310 point up move in the Dow, I only made $600, but on today's flat session, I'm up $1400. It is the wackiness of a 79% cash and being lucky that the one long position is moving up with a specific sector move.

As I mentioned to the traders last night, the 1490 S&P level would be resistance because it was previously the support levels from October. This level held four times before it broke below it a few days ago. Now I'm actually hoping we retest the Mon low and go a little bit below it on a high volume drop so that we finally have people throwing in the towel. This way it will suck in some shorts and possibly be a chance to rebuy some of my favorites that I sold a few days ago.

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