Sunday, February 10, 2008

Reviewing Thur's trades and last week's recap

Last Thur, we exited QID at a bad price and here's how to correct for next time.

While we were right that CSCO would report bad forward guidance as the QID reached 55 in premarket. The gap higher was faded as an unexpected $31 bid for YHOO from MSFT as buyers reversed the higher QID opening for the next 40 minutes. At this point, one should have set a stop either .25 below yesterday's close since that is where some QQQQ selling materialized.

Usually the 10a-10:15a period is a point that allows a trader to enter because it is a pause before the day's trend reasserts itself. Roughly 45 min later, the QID had dropped to around 53.30 and that is where we should have exited.

Despite the bad trade we made almost .3% last week and stand -5.22% YTD. Pathetic, but its 3% better than the indexes.

Last week, the S&P retraced almost all of the gains -4%, from the prior week +4.7%. There isn't any real economic news this week. On Friday is options expiration. There is an earnings play that I'm thinking about and we'll see how I feel before I take a shot at it. At some point, I am tempted to get back into the options market, but I usually want to play those that are at least one month out. After all those who were lucky enough to own YHOO Feb or Mar calls made 16x their money. But then again, options are difficult because 90% of those who buy options lose money. You can get better odds at table games in Las Vegas.

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