Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Two and a half hours before release of 2pm Fed Minutes from Jan meeting

As several traders have commented in the past week, we're in a tight trading range that should break either up or down in a few days. Taking the S&P 500 chart for the past three months and drawing lines from the recent tops (lower highs from Dec) and bottoms (higher lows since Jan 23) you get a converging triangle. Meaning: once we break out of the range, the move could easily be plus or minus 10%. It's 50/50 and while in normal years I would be content to be 100% cash, being down more than 6% in the first seven weeks means I have to sometimes take more chances, such as with the TWM position which at the moment is $1k underwater.

At present intraday plus movers are:

Agriculture - MOS, POT

Oil - FWLT, KWK, XOM, CVX

Coal - JOYG, BUCY

Metals - SID, RIO, PCU

Gold - ABX

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