Trading notes this week

After yesterday's 420 point rise in the Dow, we were looking very stupid. Fortunately for us, the Dow gave back 290 points and allowed our position to turn slightly green.

Anytime you get a gift, TAKE IT. It's essentially saying you messed up, but the trading gods forgive you for your overconfidence. As Livermore would say, "Failure to take a gift will result in losses."

Now, I probably could have held another two minutes longer and got another fifty cents and doubled my profit, but considering the trade was bad to begin with, you better thank the gods that the "Two-thirds opposite reaction on Fed Day" held for once.

Now that we're back to all cash, we want to skip tomorrow as the markets are off for Good Friday. With the final week of the quarter, I would not be surprised if the averages try to rally starting next Monday and continuing for 4-5 days.

Regardless, let's keep an open mind on what is happening day to day. It appears that the big money is selling the winners of the quarter (Gold & Silver, Agriculture and Metals), at least in the past four days. So Gold & Silver are (ABX, GLD, XAU, and SLV), Agriculture is (POT, MOS, DBA, and MOO), Metals is Copper (PCU, FCX).

Energy is one sector I haven't had a good read, but it seems the selling has continued despite oil at $107/barrel. I'm guessing the moves have been in the OIH, XLE, COP, RIG, and NBL.

The general idea was to go long a market index for all of next week and then resume going short the market beginning April 1. But let's see if one of the charts decides to email a trade signal.