Uncle phones, I said Sell AIG

One of my uncles has a small amount invested in the stock market so its rare when he asks my opinion of specific companies since he does his homework. Tonight, out of the blue, he asks "Buy, Sell, or Hold AIG".

Now from his tone of voice, he didn't want me to look at the charts, he wanted my reflex opinion without thinking. After chatting about the upcoming Super Bowl, I took a look at it using stockcharts.com.

First some quick notes: its a Dow component and it last traded at 53.22. The 10,20,30,50, and 200 day moving averages are downward sloping and the shorter term moving averages are below the longer term ones (200 above 50 above 30 above 20 above 10).

Now let's talk in terms of generalities. I want to think Livermore here. Appraise general conditions. The line of least resistance for the general market is declining. Therefore, if i believe the market is declining, then the only thing I should be long is "Ultrashort ETFs or Regular Short ETFs". If you try to purchase a long against the prevailing market trend, you are making things more difficult than you need to. True, there will be times when your luck runs with you, but why not put the market odds in your favor and choose something where you can improve your chances of a successful trade.

Now absence of any other info, my opinion is the same from a trading perspective. Let's see how this call is one year from now, if either of us remember.