Sunday, January 27, 2008

Wallstreets_master, Felix, Meryl, Tells, and Faber recommended my short?

Received a compliment from Wallstreets_master. I forgot the "s and underscore" in his username but its corrected now. I used to be so precise with detail. I can almost here him saying, you should have stayed on third shift so you wouldn't miss the ES sessions with all of us. Nods in agreement.

So let's see down 7.82% in 17 trading days. And catalysts galore this week. Take your pick: there's earnings from AMZN, GOOG, and YHOO. A Fed rate announcement this week.

We're 43% short and 57% cash. Where do we stand? Well obviously we're betting on bad news but for how long is the better question. Part of me says thank you Barron's for having Marc Faber post your only position as a recommendation. Another part says, here's a chance to cover half the position should it spike up tomorrow. My instincts wants me to do both.

Speaking of Barron's, Felix Zulauf's interview was posted. Last time, I forgot to mention Meryl's longs, yes, she's long six companies, but only three are available for purchase since we don't have an account in the U.K. Her three longs for 2008 are MHK, WHR and ARO.

Felix has 4 shorts and 3 longs. The shorts are XLY, Ishares DJ Stoxx 600 Auto & Parts traded in Frankfurt, FXE (it's the easier equivalent), and the British Pound / Swiss Franc (In Swiss I Trust, of course Feliz is Swiss).

His longs are the GLD (its easier than buying the commodity), and March '08 futures contracts for sugar and cotton. Since we can't buy sugar or cotton yet (Hey Proshares or Rydex or IShares or anyone, invent an ETF willya), we're pretty much limited.

Ok, let's attempt to think this through objectively. We know we want to have some exposure whether its long or short before the Fed meeting. We are currently short and we have plenty of cash to cover the trade and go in the opposite direction if we are wrong.

What do we believe are tells to the short term? To me its the reaction of last year's leaders where their longer term charts do not appear broken. I'm talking BIDU, RIMM, and RIO. Yes, casy i was listening during our talks about RIO.

Something that bounced up was agriculture plays such as MON, MOS, CF, TNH.

Something that declined was energy services such as MDR and KWK.

If I were a Fibonocci theorist, does it seem like the averages want to take a leg down just as it has the last few weeks of lower highs and lower lows?

I think we're caught in a dilemma of wanting to be short, but not sure if we have the correct instrument to take advantage of a down move. From a risk averse position, I'm about 375 shares over my recommended weighting. Although, casy has seen me go 100% long in one position before but that was to prove something on a turtle moving play that took a few weeks to play out.

Let's just see where the market opens tomorrow with the Barrons push.

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